Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.185352 0.208180 0.232846 0.261498 0.293893 0.329415 0.371363
2025-11-23 0.144981 0.174111 0.207854 0.249910 0.301037 0.361323 0.438017
2025-11-30 0.121902 0.155446 0.196810 0.251759 0.323131 0.413092 0.535709
2025-12-07 0.098986 0.133236 0.177932 0.240856 0.327693 0.444088 0.613230
2025-12-14 0.083048 0.117496 0.164863 0.235249 0.338052 0.484054 0.709497
2025-12-21 0.070569 0.104530 0.153536 0.230105 0.348020 0.524829 0.813963
2025-12-28 0.063034 0.097493 0.149537 0.234820 0.372964 0.591182 0.968355
2026-01-04 0.055187 0.088799 0.141733 0.232371 0.386225 0.641337 1.105759
2026-01-11 0.049386 0.082481 0.136701 0.233492 0.405285 0.703681 1.274724
2026-01-18 0.044994 0.077843 0.133714 0.237491 0.429719 0.778847 1.480018
2026-01-25 0.039158 0.069920 0.124027 0.228190 0.428729 0.808015 1.604077
2026-02-01 0.033969 0.062457 0.114155 0.217063 0.422483 0.826099 1.709254
2026-02-08 0.030196 0.057223 0.107883 0.212279 0.428674 0.871142 1.882610
2026-02-15 0.026838 0.052346 0.101654 0.206696 0.432464 0.912198 2.056386
2026-02-22 0.024970 0.050142 0.100346 0.210974 0.457704 1.003060 2.361850
2026-03-01 0.022204 0.045764 0.094088 0.203858 0.456982 1.036800 2.540025
2026-03-08 0.020130 0.042562 0.089852 0.200536 0.464318 1.090303 2.778708
2026-03-15 0.018301 0.039652 0.085862 0.197173 0.471017 1.143506 3.028433
2026-03-22 0.017299 0.038425 0.085393 0.201911 0.498082 1.251511 3.449051
2026-03-29 0.015948 0.036240 0.082482 0.200349 0.509119 1.320694 3.777120
2026-04-05 0.014925 0.034689 0.080841 0.201693 0.527941 1.413949 4.197261
2026-04-12 0.014139 0.033602 0.080166 0.205404 0.553766 1.531232 4.718553
2026-04-19 0.012780 0.030960 0.075372 0.197620 0.546608 1.554041 4.947841